AFRAA Forecasts Rise in Airline Revenues for 2024

AFRAA's insights reveal an optimistic future for airline revenues in 2024, with significant cargo movement and advancements in airspace management and digitalization across Africa.

The African Airlines Association (AFRAA) has provided a comprehensive overview of the aviation sector's performance and initiatives across the continent, indicating a promising outlook for airline revenues in 2024. In November 2023, cargo movement to and from Africa totalled 149.6 million kilograms, with African airlines accounting for 30.8% of this volume. Several major African airports, including those in Johannesburg, Nairobi, Addis Ababa, Lusaka, Cairo, Casablanca, Abidjan, and Lagos, have seen intra-Africa connectivity return to or surpass pre-Covid levels since December 2022.

AFRAA forecasts a notable increase in airline revenues for 2023, with the year's revenue shortfall expected to be $200 million or less compared to the full year of 2019. This marks a significant improvement from the $3.5 billion full-year passenger revenue gap reported in 2022 against 2019 figures. Despite the ongoing marginal fluctuations in Jet A1 prices, which saw a 2% increase to $108.92/bbl in the week of January 19, 2023, the overall outlook remains positive.

Highlighting advancements in airspace management and technology adoption, Somalia has reclaimed control of its airspace management from Nairobi, upgrading its airspace to Class A to enhance safety and operational efficiency. Zambia's implementation of electronic cargo manifests and Cameroon's introduction of a mobile app for air passenger customs processing are indicative of a move towards digital transformation in the sector. These initiatives are designed to streamline operations and align with international standards.

However, Tunisia's increase in tourism tax for economy and business class travellers, implemented without industry consultation, has raised concerns about its potential impact on tourist arrivals. Conversely, Tunisia's ratification of the Montreal Protocol 2014 (MP14), effective January 2023, positions the country as the 47th party to the agreement, aiming to address jurisdictional gaps and deter unruly passenger behavior.

AFRAA's report underscores a year of recovery and progress for the African aviation industry, highlighting both challenges and achievements while advocating for continued modernization and regulatory enhancements to support growth and operational excellence.